Pick a colour - still more.

As an addendum to yesterday's post, I understand that our three card problem is a modern take on a very successful scam run by a French commercial travelling salesman in the late 19th century.  He would go down the local tavern and gather together those drinking there.  He would then produce three cups.  Into one he would put two gold coins, into another two silver coins, and into the third, one gold coin and one silver one.  He would shuffle the cups and invite someone to pick a cup at random and take out one coin from it.  He would then offer to bet anyone interested that the other coin in that cup would be the same colour as the one drawn.  If you followed yesterday's reasoning you will realise that he would on average win the bet two times out of three.  Of course the neat part of his trick was that he was a traveller, and so the next night he would be in a different place in a different tavern with a new different unsuspecting audience.  Apparently he made considerably more from his con than he did from his job!

Pick a colour - continued.

Well - would you take my bet (see last Thursday's post)?  Seems a good thing - odds of 6/4 against on what appears to be an even money shot.  But then, if it seems to be too good to be true, it usually is!  So let's go through it carefully. There are three cards, each with two sides, so six sides in all - three red and three black. Let's label them.  For the red/red card we'll call one side Red1 and the other Red2. Same with the black/black card - Black1 and Black2.  The third card is red on one side - call that Red3 - and black on the other - Black3.  OK, we are looking at a card, the top side of which is red.  So we could be looking at Red1, in which case the other side is Red2 - so it's red.  Equally we could be looking at Red2, in which case the other side is Red1 - so it's red.  Or we could be looking at Red3 in which case the other side is Black3 - so it's black.  Three possibilities - two of which lead to the other side being red, and one to the other side being black.  So it is not, as I suggested in my original spiel, a 50-50 chance - it is actually twice as likely that the other side is red, and the true odds I should be offering you is 2/1 against.  Don't take the bet!

An end to no end?

Always nice when someone in authority comes out in support of ideas you have floated.  More than once I have spoken against the fact that people released after an arrest can be held on "police bail" for indefinite periods, and now the Chief Constable of the British Transport Police - who is also the spokesperson for the Association of Chief Police Officers - has come out in support of a statutory limit (six months is suggested) on such arrangements. Right on!

R.I.P.

Bill Pertwee - ARP Warden Hodges in "Dad's Army"
Put that light out! - and now sadly it has been.

Think before you act.

In the aftermath of the murder of a soldier on the streets of London the other day, the Prime Minister has stated his intention to curb the activities of "religious leaders who promote violence".  Once again the knee-jerk reaction of being seen to "do something" is likely to make matters worse rather then better.  I've made the point before that freedom of speech necessarily includes the freedom to say unpleasant and unpopular things.  You're not going to stop the "hate clerics" peddling their stuff - you'll simply send it underground.  And why bother to try anyway?  The law already makes it an offence to encourage others to commit a crime and that quite clearly covers what these extremist preachers are doing - so why isn't it being used?  Let them have their say, and then prosecute them.

The Lazy Cook

My first post under this title was some five and a half years ago and concerned doing porridge in the microwave.  But it's only recently that I've realised you can use the same basic method to do scrambled eggs.  Can't be quite so precise because much depends on the size of the eggs, their freshness and how you like your scramblies - runny or firm.  But here's the technique - lightly brush the inside of a cereal bowl with oil (otherwise it'll be a bugger to wash later on!) and crack two eggs into it. Add a splash of milk, season and whisk.  Microwave on full power for one minute. Take out, stir well and microwave for a further 30 seconds.  Take out and stir again.  And this is where I can't be too specific - all I can say is continue to microwave in 10 second bursts until the consistency is to your liking.  As with the porridge post, watch you don't burn yourself on the bowl, and remember my microwave is 650w - you may need to adjust the timings for your machine.

Who wears the trousers?

A donor to UKIP has caused somewhat of a furore by saying that women shouldn't wear trousers because the Bible says that to do so is "an abomination".  So does it? Well, not exactly - in Deuteronomy (which is reputedly a record of the teachings of Moses) it does say “A woman shall not wear a man's garment, nor shall a man put on a woman's cloak, for whoever does these things is an abomination to the Lord your God".  But of course back then, trousers were unknown - men tended to wear either loincloths or loose robes.  So the question is - who decided and when that trousers should be "a man's garment"?  I think initially it probably came about as a matter of practicality -  if you're a woman, trousers are more difficult to cope with than a skirt if you need to go to the toilet - particularly as prior to the Victorian era, women tended to wear nothing under their skirts.  It wasn't until the 1920s (my Mum told me about this because it was her generation) that it became a fashion fad for young women to adopt masculine clothes, masculine names and masculine manners and it's gone on from there.  So what about Deuteronomy? Seems to me that it was aimed specifically at what today we would call "cross-dressers" - those who deliberately choose to dress as the opposite sex - rather than those who simply find a particular article of clothing practical and comfortable despite it being usually associated with the opposite sex.  And for that matter, what about the kilt???

...they're lovely!

It seems that the long cold winter may have been a pain to us, but particularly good for strawberry plants - growers are suggesting that this year's crop will be bigger and sweeter that usual.  Well, hooray - but the most important question (to me at least) is how much are they going to cost?  The price of my food shop is going up by leaps and bounds - I posted at the beginning of last year about how what used to be a £40 shop was then costing more like £50 - well now it's around £60!  Where will it stop?  Shall I be able to afford these big, sweet strawberries?

Pick a colour...

Here's another of those counter-intuitive problems I like to tease you with.  I show you three cards - one is black on both sides, one is red on both sides and the third is black on one side and red on the other.  We place them on the table under a cloth, shuffle them about and then slide out one at random.  We observe that the side we can see is red.  I say to you "Well, obviously this is not the card that is black on both sides.  It is either the card that is red on both sides, in which case the other side of this card is red, or it's the red/black card in which case the other side is black.  It's just as likely to be one as the other so it's a 50-50 chance.  But I have a fancy that the other side is red, and indeed I'm willing to back my fancy by offering you odds of 6/4 against it being black - so to be clear, if you accept my bet and the other side is black you will win one and a half times your stake".  Should you accept my bet?  Watch this space.

Music Man

It's the bicentennial of the birth of Richard Wagner - who, whatever you think about him or his music, was without doubt one of the most important and influential composers of the 19th century.  I think I've mentioned before that I'm not a great fan, particularly of his operas, which is what he is best known for. On the other hand, the overtures which he wrote for those operas are some of his most approachable music - try the one to the third act of Lohengrin or the opening one to The Meistersinger von Nürnberg, and then of course there's the one to the first act of Tristan und Isolde - the famous "Tristan chord".  Yes, if you're prepared to pick your way through you'll probably find something to your taste - and almost certainly, much that isn't!

You're nicked, son!

Should the identity of someone who has been arrested be made public?  Lot of discussion about this recently, not helped by contradictory statements by Ministers. So - what do you think?  In my opinion the answer is "no" save in exceptional circumstances such as where there is an ongoing situation of which the public should be made aware.  The basic argument in favour of naming people who have been arrested is that it may result in witnesses coming forward - but it seems to me that this is a further example of the worryingly prevalent police approach of "arrest now - hope to find the evidence later".  Once a person has been charged of course, that's a different matter - they should be named.

The biter bit?

Anybody else see the irony in Nigel Farage, leader of UKIP, complaining about his treatment in Scotland where he was surrounded by a mob telling him to "go back to England, you're not welcome here"?

R.I.P.

Paul Shane - Ted Bovis in "Hi-de-hi"
First rule of comedy, Spike...
...always leave 'em wanting more.

Goodnight campers.

Now you see it....

A town council in Somerset has decided not to fly the flag of St George on its civic flagpole because its association with the Crusades might make it "offensive to Muslims".  The town has a population of some five and a half thousand of which apparently less than twenty are Muslims.  But perhaps the most farcical aspect of their decision is that they are going to fly the Union Flag there instead - and of course the Union Flag contains somewhat prominently the flag of St George! 

I wanna tell you a story...

How do you put your kids to bed?  Just kiss them, say "Goodnight" and switch out the light, or spend some time talking to them or maybe reading them a story? When I was little, I remember my Dad would come up and lie next to me on my bed and we would talk about anything and everything - and quite often he would doze off there on the bed.  But what I remember most vividly is that these were moments I never wanted to end - I have never felt happier.  So I in my turn made sure I did the same for my children - though I have to say, not as often as I should have.  What brought this to mind is a story from the US where someone has come up with the idea of "smart pyjamas" which are printed with clusters of dots which, when scanned by a smart 'phone or tablet trigger the device to play a video and tell a story.  Glad to say this has provoked a backlash from some parents  - and very rightly so in my opinion.

The Lazy Cook

Not about cooking this time - but about tea and coffee.  I like both and am always on the lookout for something different.  If you've read any of the "No 1 Ladies' Detective Agency" books you will have heard of redbush tea, but have you ever tried it?  What I've come across which I really like is Tetley's redbush and vanilla - the vanilla gives it a nice smoothness.  Then when we were on holiday on the Gower - of all places - I came across chai.  This is an Indian spiced tea and really delicious. Twinings do it.  What I like to do is combine the two - a teabag of redbush and vanilla, one of chai and a sweetener - I don't usually take sugar or sweeteners in my drink, but this I think really needs it.  My daughter-in-law who I think I have mentioned before is of Indian descent says I must really use demerera sugar, so I'm going to try that.  So - coffee.  I'm a sucker for the sachet coffees which you see all over supermarket shelves these days, but what I have found infuriating is that more often than not as you pour the water in, they "clump" leaving you with unappetising lumps which you need to fish out before drinking.  It is in fact the powdered milk that tends to cause the problem.  But I have found a solution - no guarantees, but it works more often than not.  First make sure your water is hot but NOT boiling and then pour just a little water into the cup with the contents of the sachet and mix to a smooth paste, then pour the rest of the water in, stirring all the while.  So there you are.

It's all in the name - or is it?

You know the Poundland shops - "Everything's a pound" - right?  Well not necessarily it seems.  Local (to me) Poundland stores have started selling stuff for 97p - this apparently in response to various 99p stores which have opened up recently.  I suppose "Ninetysevenpland" just doesn't have the same ring.

Ha ha - two for the price of one

I asked a North Korean friend how his life was going.
He said "I can't complain".

Two satellite dishes decided to get married.  The ceremony was only so-so, but the reception was amazing!

Serve and protect?

As a lad, I never played hopscotch, but I understood the principles, including that you needed to map out a grid on the pavement, usually with chalk, to indicate where you needed to step to stay in the game.  It's been played since forever, but a girl in Kent has now been warned by the police that drawing out a hopscotch grid on the pavement - in chalk - could amount to criminal damage. Where on earth do they get these idiots??

Unbelievable!!

Almost twelve months ago I posted about a man who had got into trouble for cleaning up a cemetery in Bristol - something you would think would meet with approval rather than censure, and now we have an even more astonishing case of a young man who has been tending his local war memorial for years and who decided that the plants - which he himself had planted - would benefit from continuous irrigation and to that end laid a pipe from an existing water supply.  So guess what? He has been accused of theft and criminal damage, has been interrogated at length by the police and the case has been referred to the CPS to consider prosecution.  To say the mind boggles is a gross understatement. Wasn't one of the Government's flagship ideas the "big society" which was all about ordinary people doing work for the common good - and isn't that what this lad was doing, and has been for several years?  I think some heads need banging together!

What to do (3)

Following on from last Tuesday's post - if you're going to use X (or any other letter or symbol) to represent an unknown, then you have to be consistent - it must represent the same unknown throughout - and it is here that our reasoning falls apart.  In our initial statement - that if our envelope contains X, the other envelope must contain either 2X or X/2 - we are using X to represent two different values - firstly (the 2X bit) the lesser of the two amounts on offer and then (X/2) the greater of the two.  It becomes more obvious if we use real money - let's suppose that we know that one envelope contains £10 and the other one £20.  If we have chosen the envelope with £10 in it (i.e. X = 10) then the other envelope must contain £20 (2X). It cannot contain X/2 (£5).  Equally if our envelope contains £20, the other must contain £10 (X/2).  It cannot contain 2X (£40).  So our initial statement is false, and everything which flows from it is equally false.  If X represents the smaller amount (£10 in our example) then clearly whichever envelope we choose, the other envelope must contain either 2X or X and as that goes for either envelope, there is nothing to be gained by swapping.

The real special one.

I suppose I should say something about Sir Alex Ferguson retiring as manager of Manchester United, but given that Man U are my favourite hate team it's difficult to separate the man from the team, so my initial reaction was "Thank God - perhaps now other teams will get look-in".  But if I force myself to step back and look at things unemotionally, I have to accept that the man is a prodigious talent, as witnessed by the fact that he has created a succession of top-class sides over more than two decades. Many managers have been fortunate enough to get together a talented group of players who have dominated the game for a season or two, but to do it again and again is what sets him apart.

Catering for everybody?

I posted last October about Brighton and Hove's decision to do away with gender titles (Mr, Mrs, Miss and Ms) on the grounds that forcing people to chose a title was unfair on transsexuals.  But of course this can be seen as equally unfair on those who are certain of their sexuality, and is a recipe for confusion generally, so the council have come up with a compromise - official forms will continue to have tick-boxes for Mr, Mrs, Miss and Ms, but will also include a box labelled "Mx" for those who do not wish to be classified by gender.  Apparently there are some 40,000 of what it seems I must describe as LGBTs in Brighton, so it seems a reasonable enough move.

More than one way to skin a cat?

Remember the story about CCTV cars in London (post dated 10/7/10)?  Well we now learn, to no great surprise, that the drivers of these cars are being expected to issue at least 260 fixed penalty notices a day.  But hang on - wasn't the setting of quotas for the issuing of penalty tickets made illegal some years back?  Ah, but you see the council involved has said that it doesn't set targets for this sort of thing, but it does issue forecasts of what they anticipate the number will be.  Spot the difference??

What to do (2)

This is a continuation of last Friday's post.  There is a logical technique for testing an argument known as reductio ad absurdum whereby if an argument leads to an impossible or absurd result then that is proof that the argument is false.  You have probably realised that our reasoning in the "two envelopes" problem leads to the absurd result that, whichever envelope we choose, we can use that reasoning to show that the other envelope must contain 25% more money - so we would swap from envelope 1 to envelope 2, and then swap back to envelope 1 then back to envelope 2 and so on ad infinitum.  So our reasoning is clearly false, but why? That's not so easy to get your head round - see if you can get it.  All will be revealed next time.

UKIP

So - what do we make of them?  Are they fruitcakes (Cameron), clowns (Clarke) or what?  Neither - in my book they are con-men, snake oil salesmen, telling us what they think we want to hear, with no realistic chance of ever coming up with the goods if it comes to it.  We don't elect governments to do what is popular, we elect them to do what is right, and it seems to me that politicians of all colours seem to have lost sight of that, and UKIP is the one of the results.

Coming through!!

A strange story in the news about a primary school in Sussex which is issuing "licences" to children who have passed a proficiency test run by the school allowing them to scoot to and from school.  This in response apparently to complaints from local residents about what they perceive as hazards caused by kids on scooters behaving irresponsibly.  Two points - however well-intentioned. these licences have no legal effect, and indeed schools have no jurisdiction over their pupils outside school premises and school hours.  But far more to the point, where are the parents? This is a primary school so I would expect and hope that the majority of children are being taken and picked up by parents or other responsible adults and it is for them to control what their little darlings are doing once out on the streets. I've no problem with kids being taught road-sense, and indeed have posted about this before, but perhaps they should also run courses for parents?

Everyone has the right to a fair trial.

Anybody else feel slightly uncomfortable at the way the trial of the man accused of abducting and murdering April Jones is being conducted?  The jury were played a recording of the 999 call made by her mother - why?  They were taken on a day trip to Machynlleth where the incident is alleged to have taken place - why?  They have been read statements by April's mother and father telling of their frantic efforts to search for her - why?  How do hearing or seeing any of these things make it more or less likely that the accused man is guilty?  Where is the relevance? What subjecting the jury to this information is likely to do is play on their emotions and make them more sympathetic to the prosecution's case - in other words it is prejudicial to the accused.  So why was it allowed?

What to do? What to do??

Remember the Monty Hall problem?  If not, you might like to look back at my post of 23/2/08.  So here's a somewhat similar conundrum.  You are presented with two envelopes and told that both contain money, but one contains twice as much as the other.  You are invited to choose an envelope and then told that you can take whatever is in that envelope, or you can swap to the other envelope and take whatever is in there. What should you do?  You could argue this way - (1) the envelope I have chosen contains a sum of money.  I don't know what it is, so call it X. (2) The other envelope then either contains 2X or X/2.  (3) It's just as likely to be the one as the other.  (4) The "value" of the other envelope is therefore 1/2 x 2X + 1/2 x X/2 and this works out as X + X/4.  (5) But this is more than the X in my envelope, and I should therefore swap.  So what do you think?  Are you persuaded by that argument? Think about it and we'll come back to it in a few days' time.

The spy who missed his stop.

A new spy novel by John Le Carré brought to mind his first - the book that left me soaking wet and far from home.  This was while I was still "courting" and well before I had a car, so I travelled to and fro to see my girl-friend (later to be my wife) on the bus, and invariably had a paperback book in my back pocket to while away the journeys.  So this one time it was "The Spy Who Came In From The Cold" and I was on my way home and got so engrossed that I suddenly realised I had gone some couple or three stops past where I should have got off - and I had to walk back in the pouring rain.  Strangely I could never get into any of his subsequent books, but I always remember that one.

The Lazy Cook

Here's one for the slow cooker - it's based on the Spanish dish "fabada" which is a delicious rustic pork and bean stew.  Very simple (naturally!).  You will need

• A couple or three slices of belly pork
• A couple or three slices of black pudding
• A few small chunks of chorizo
• A tin of cannellini beans
• Garlic
• Paprika

Cut the pork into bite-sized chunks (I cut the rind off) and the black pudding similarly.  Seal the pork in the frying pan.  Drain the beans.  Put everything in the slow cooker - paprika to taste, I use a heaped teaspoonful.  And that's it.  Enjoy!