Opinion polls

"How could they have got it so wrong?" is the cry.  And I remember the same thing being said after the 1992 election to which I referred yesterday.  And the answer is the same now as it was then - they didn't get it wrong.  They accurately reported what people were telling them.  If people were lying - or perhaps to be more charitable, concealing their true voting intentions - then that's not the fault of the polls.  Why people would do that is perhaps the more interesting question.  It's been suggested that some might be embarrassed to admit they intend to vote for the Conservatives - the so-called "shy Tories".  Then again it may be that Conservative voters generally are more likely to be the sort of people who guard their privacy.  So can anything be done to make the polls more reflective of what is actually going on? One suggestion is that instead of asking flat out: who do you intend to vote for, pollsters should ask more indirect questions designed to build up a profile of the person being interviewed - and this profile can then be used to predict their voting intentions.  But the lesson to be learned is - treat polls with caution.