Saturday, December 10, 2011

Snap - the real deal.

So what is the Prisoner's Dilemma?  It goes like this - you and an accomplice have committed a serious offence.  You have both been arrested, and are being held in separate police stations, with no way of contacting each other.  You are approached by a detective who has a proposition for you, and who makes it clear that the same proposition is being put to your accomplice.  The proposition is this - if you are willing to confess and give evidence against your accomplice, you will go free and your accomplice, thanks to your evidence, will be convicted of the full offence, and will go to prison for 15 years.  If you both confess, you will both go on trial for the full offence, but consideration will be given to the fact that you have confessed, and you will both get a reduced sentence of 5 years.  If neither of you confess, there will not be enough evidence to put you on trial for the full offence, so you will both be charged with a lesser offence for which the authorities have ample evidence against you and you will go to prison for one year.  What should you do?  You will see the similarity with the card game - the "safe" option for you is to confess - that way the worst that can happen is you go away for 5 years, and there's always the possibility you will go free.  On the other hand, if you both refuse to confess, that is the best option for both of you, as you both end up with just a year inside, but can you trust your accomplice?  If you refuse to confess, and he (or she)  confesses, you end up with 15 years in the slammer!

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