Thursday, March 01, 2007

Pill popping.

Taking vitamin supplements increases your chance of dying earlier, says a recent report in an American medical journal. I haven't read the original article, but the way it's been reported on the news raises many questions. Perhaps the most obvious is whether any account has been taken of the probability that a fair percentage of those who take vitamin supplements are doing so because they have health problems - in other words, they are not well people to begin with. There's a common logical fallacy known as "post hoc ergo propter hoc" where the fact that B follows A is taken as proof, or at least an indication that B has been caused by A, when in fact there may be no connection. Is that what we've got here?

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