Thursday, September 11, 2014

Scotland decides?

With just a week to go, I feel I should make some comment on what is the top news story of the moment, so over the next few days I'll be looking at the Scottish Independence Referendum. So, first off - how likely is it that they will vote "yes"? Well, it's certainly a distinct possibility, and the "Yes" campaign seem to have seized the momentum.  But really, isn't that to be expected?  Indeed what I find surprising is that the "No" campaign have held such a healthy lead for so long.  When you think about it, the "No" campaign's pitch has been, and couldn't really have been anything other than - vote "No" to keep things as they are, and that is never going to stir the blood.  The "Yes" campaign is all about charging forward to a (possibly) exciting tomorrow - the "No" is more pipe and slippers and a cup of Ovaltine.  The "No"s should have been on the back foot from day one and the surprise is that they haven't been.  And therein maybe lies the "No"s best hope - I would have expected by this point in the campaign that the "Yes"s would be significantly ahead, and the fact that they aren't must be a concern for them, because experience of elections seems to suggest that as voting day draws nearer, the "status quo" effect comes into play and voters tend to revert to clinging to what they know.  But what does it mean for the rest of us?  More to follow.

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