Sunday, April 03, 2011

Electoral reform.

I don't know why this hasn't occurred to me before, but AV does not necessarily do what it says on the tin, as it were.  It's supposed to ensure that the person elected has received 50% or more of the vote.  But consider - three candidates, A, B & C.  When the first preference votes are counted, candidate A has 45%, candidate B 40% and candidate C 15%.  So under the rules of AV, candidate C is eliminated and their ballot papers redistributed according to the second preference votes.  But now suppose that for most of those who voted for candidate C, it was candidate C or nothing, and so they didn't express a second preference.  Let's suppose only 5% did, of which 3% went for candidate B and 2% for candidate A.  So now candidate A has 47% and candidate B 43%.  And that's it - no more votes to be redistributed, and candidate A is elected with only 47% of the vote.  But I've just had another thought which I'll keep for tomorrow.

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