Probability 101.

Let's talk about knowledge and perception - with particular regard to this business of phone-in quiz shows which has featured so much in the news lately. Let's assume such a quiz show results in 1000 people calling in with the correct answer, and that they are numbered 1 to 1000 according to the order in which their calls are received. Now let's assume that, once the lines are closed, the computer randomly picks caller number 27 as the winner. This apparently would be considered as a fair quiz. But now suppose that the computer picks 27 as the winning call before the lines open - or even maybe weeks or months in advance. Provided this information is kept secret, statistically or probability-wise it makes not the slightest difference to anyone's chances - 27 is going to win, everybody else is going to lose. So why should this be considered a rip-off? The answer has nothing to do with statistics or probability, and everything to do with perception. As long as you know (or think you know!) that the winner has not been chosen, you feel you are in with a chance. In reality, provided always that the selection is made from a number at least as great as the number of successful callers, your chance is exactly the same, whether or not the choice has already been made.