Friday, October 21, 2005

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Another set of crime figures - what, if anything, do they mean? Let's face it - nobody knows how much crime there is, only how much crime is reported. So that's what these figures represent, and the extent to which crimes are reported depends on many changing factors. When the police started to take domestic violence seriously, the incidence of domestic violence appeared to increase - but this was simply because more people felt it was worthwhile reporting such behaviour. Recently, a local police authority who decided to put more bobbies on the beat reported a marked increase in crime - but again this was because you're far more likely to report a crime if you see a policeman just down the street than if you have to go down the local (and it's probably not that local) cop-shop to do it. So let's be clear - these new figures which show overall crime falling may represent a genuine decrease, or equally may simply be an indication that people, for whatever reason, are somewhat less likely to report crime. Equally, the reported increase in violent crime may be nothing more than the public's reaction to their perception that these crimes are being taken more seriously. The reality may be that nothing much has changed.

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