Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Bad, worse, worst

Poll carried out by local news programme the other night - should we withdraw our troops from Iraq? Result - 90% yes. Why does this worry me? My position on Iraq is quite clear - we should never have got involved in the first place, but we did and must now deal with the situation as it is, however much we may wish it were different. If there's one thing nearly 70 years in this world has taught me, it is that life rarely presents you with clear and easy choices. For the most part, you find yourself making choices you would rather not have to make, and choosing between options which all have a downside. So how do we deal with this? There are two strategies which have helped me over the years. The first is the seat-belt approach. Every year several people are killed or seriously injured as a direct result of wearing seatbelts, so how can the government possibly justify passing a law requiring us to wear one? The answer, of course is that many, many, many more people are saved from death or serious injury as a result of wearing seatbelts - in other words the advantages far, far outweigh the disadvantages. So, list the pluses and minuses of your various options and you might find the answer becomes obvious, or at least easier. But what happens if there are no pluses? Then you fall back on the "least-worst" approach. Which option produces the least worst result? Which brings me back to that poll. I can't help but feel that many of those 90% have not considered the matter any further than to see the obvious bad things which will flow from our troops remaining there. But what is likely to happen if we withdraw? Will that lead to even worse things? I don't claim to have the answer, but I'm certain it's not so clear-cut as that poll would suggest.

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